Will Red Sox make playoffs? Here are FanGraphs’ post-trade deadline odds originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
The Boston Red Sox sit at the bottom of the American League East division following Tuesday night’s MLB trade deadline, but there’s still a decent enough chance that they reach the MLB postseason for the second consecutive year.
You could say the Red Sox had a weird trade deadline.
They traded veteran catcher Christian Vazquez to the Houston Astros for two low-ranked prospects. They also acquired outfielder Tommy Pham from the Cincinnati Reds, catcher Reese McGuire from the Chicago White Sox and first baseman Eric Hosmer from the San Diego Padres in separate deals.
A case could be made the Red Sox did improve slightly at the deadline. Hosmer’s defense and decent production at the plate should upgrade a huge weak spot at first base.
What are the odds the Red Sox have a strong last two months of the season and clinch an AL playoff spot? Winning the division is out of the question given the New York Yankees’ astounding 17-game lead over the Red Sox.
Securing a wild card spot is doable, but according to FanGraphs, the Red Sox have just a 33.9 percent chance of earning one of those three berths. Looking for some optimism? Boston has the third-easiest remaining strength of schedule among the seven teams in contention for the three wild card spots, per FanGraphs.
The Red Sox are riding a little momentum, too. They’ve won three in a row and two of the first three games of their series against the defending AL champion Astros, with the final matchup set for Wednesday night at Minute Maid Park. And then the Red Sox travel to Kansas City to play four games versus a Royals team with the second-worst record in the AL.
The Red Sox have been a disappointment through the first 105 games of the season, but there’s still plenty to play for over the next eight weeks. Earning one of those wild card berths is absolutely an attainable goal.