This past season, Trea Turner pinned down shortstop for one of the greatest regular-season teams in baseball history – the 2022 Los Angeles Dodgers. In addition to supplying solid defense at that vital position, Turner in his age-29 campaign slashed .298/.343/.466 (121 OPS+) with 21 home runs and 39 doubles in 160 games. Over the past three seasons, Turner at the plate has an OPS+ of 137. As well, he remains an elite base-stealer.
Turner right now also happens to be a free agent, and given his broad-based excellence it’s not surprising that he ranks highly on our list of free agents for the current offseason. Here’s what we wrote in ranking Turner fourth on our top 50:
Turner has been the second-best hitting shortstop in the majors over the last three seasons, posting a higher OPS+ than everyone except Fernando Tatis Jr., whose production came in half as many plate appearances because of injury and suspension. He’s a dynamic offensive player, an elite-grade runner with above-average raw power who is capable of posting a 20-20 effort each season. Turner does have an aggressive approach at the plate that sees him readily expand his zone, but it hasn’t worked against him yet and, besides, mishit balls are an opportunity for him to leg out an infield single. The more concerning matter with Turner’s game is his defense. He committed 16 errors last season, by far the most of the top free-agent shortstops. (Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, and Dansby Swanson combined for 26.) Errors are an imperfect measure, though it’s reasonable to think he may need to slide to the other side of the bag in the future (a position he’s already familiar with, having played there out of deference to Corey Seager). Regardless, Turner has been a highly productive hitter throughout his career, and there’s no reason to expect that to change soon.
So in anticipation of what figures to be a heated market for his services – a deal worth close to $300 million seems likely – we’re here to rank all 30 teams based on how likely they are to sign Turner this offseason. This, of course, is subject to change, and surprises are always possible. Right now, though, here’s how things look for the Turner market.
Tier 1: Not happening
These teams are at…